Showing posts with label Covid-19. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Covid-19. Show all posts
Sunday, January 10, 2021
Let's make it a Happy New Year. Vaccine update
I have been quiet so far this year because I have been processing a lot of thoughts and I try not to inundate you with emails with stuff that is not important to your well being. I can certainly give my opinion on political matters and climate change but I don’t think that is necessarily a service to you. That’s just me getting stuff off my chest.
At the same time I am very pleased to announce that not one single patient of mine died last year from Covid! I am incredibly proud of that, particularly since my worst predictions did come true.
The nonsense that is going on with vaccine distribution and the usual disenfranchisement of minorities continues. People who are not actually exposed to patients are getting vaccines ahead of front line workers. That’s a whole other story, one I wont bother you with. It will however, be interesting to see if the one Covid vaccine shot that the congresspeople and senators got this month will protect them from the Covid that was spread by the mob that invaded the chamber on Wednesday. Most ‘non-believers’ in mask wearing.
Anyway, here are some thoughts for the New Year:
First, congratulations on making it through 2020. Thank you for staying safe, staying well and most of all for being good citizens. Wearing your mask and understanding that that is part of good citizenry ensuring your health and that of the community.
This year at least 2 more vaccines will be authorized but once again I must reiterate that the vaccine is not the short term solution for us right now. All those who hung their hat on the idea that 20 million people would be vaccinated by the end of 2020 had just one more thing to be disappointed about.
I hope you are starting to be more realistic and see that ‘the light’ is only a glimmer right now at the end of the tunnel. Do not let up and for goodness sake stop traveling!
The two vaccines already authorized in the US right now are the Moderna and the Pfizer vaccines, which are both recombinant mRNA vaccines.
Pfizer is authorized for 16 and over. Moderna for 18 and over.
Both prevent severe Covid disease but it is not known if they prevent transmission which means that the person who gets it may not be sick but may still be able to spread the virus.
The most common side effects of the vaccines are injection site pain, fatigue, headache, muscle pain, and joint pain. Side effects are more common after the second dose; younger adults, who have more robust immune systems, reported more side effects than older adults.
To be clear: These side effects are a sign of an immune system kicking into gear. They do not signal that the vaccine is unsafe. To date there are no serious, long-term side effects associated with receipt of these vaccines, which will be closely monitored as their use expands.
I have just released some new videos on some basic health conditions: such as hypertension, prediabetes and hair loss. Plus a video on care of the newborn and a new testimonial.
https://youtu.be/-K5_XiM-Y3o Newborn pearls
https://youtu.be/eIvyPjOTmT8 Prediabetes
https://youtu.be/y-j42PMzvag Hypertension
https://youtu.be/RH1R3IEtW4Y How to prevent going bald
https://youtu.be/mVjsJE7b2-U HRT testimonial
Well that’s enough for one email!
May science reign again this year, the sooner it does the sooner we will get back to normal.
Happy New Year!
Wednesday, November 18, 2020
Do not be blindsided by the news of a Covid vaccine!
Don’t get blindsided by the news on the vaccine. Here is the inconvenient truth!
In the last 24 hours in Maryland 26 people died and there were 2152 new cases. Bringing the number of dead in our state to 4201 and total cases 171,823. There are 1144 people in the hospital with covid-19 here in Md as you read this, what a huge change from July.
Over the past week, the country has been averaging 158,265 cases per day, an increase of 79 percent from the average two weeks earlier.
11.5 million cases and a quarter of a MILLION people dead nationwide.
These numbers sound like they come from a war zone in a third world country but even then they would be shocking. If you can sit home and let these numbers sink in and still not be shocked then nothing will shake you.
If you do, in fact understand the gravity of this situation, are you sure you do not want to rethink your Thanksgiving plans? I suggest you do.
Even if you don’t catch covid-19, Thanksgiving is not the time you want to end up in the ER with hundreds of infected people who have it.
Plus the medical staff is now beyond the point of exhaustion. When you think YOU have 'covid fatigue' try putting yourself in the place of those who have been serving for these 9 months.
Now that the election is over and the news cycle is slowing down TV anchors are pouncing on the news put out by Moderna and Pfizer last week about having a vaccine that is over 90% effective.
Last week Monday, Pfizer said their vaccine was 90% effective but then Moderna said this week theirs was 94.5% effective. So today Pfizer revised their figures and it suddenly became 95% effective. Maybe if we wait another week the number will be even higher.
But all jokes aside, we are in the midst of a pandemic like no other and the whole management of it has been a comedy of errors. The only thing you can rely on is your own social behavior. That is the only thing under your control.
The earliest you will see (or want to take) a vaccine is March and a lot can happen between then and now.
Taking solace in the idea that there is a vaccine on the horizon is, in my opinion, a fool’s paradise. You are not guaranteed to still be here when it is finally available to you!
Somehow people are getting a false sense of security because “there is a vaccine” even though it is not available.
Please reread the email I wrote on how vaccine trials are conducted and what kinds of vaccines there are. Do you realize that a vaccine may be 95% effective today and show no efficacy 2 months later?
I know I am a party pooper and that is by design. The parties must wait, as inconvenient as it sounds.
There is, however, a glimmer of hope. The home test that I wrote about 5 months ago has just been approved. This means that home testing and possibly weekly testing at home with testing of contacts may soon be possible. As I wrote in April, testing is in some ways more critical than the vaccine at getting the pandemic under control.
The last piece of good news is that we will have a new corona virus task force with dedicated individuals determined to save lives and create a workable solution.
I don’t suggest traveling for the holidays or having out of town visitors but if you are determined to be ‘special’ please look at the Hot Spot maps on line. They are truly illuminating.
Please be safe, be well. Be a good citizen.
Pray for the essential workers who are already extended beyond their limits.
Tuesday, November 10, 2020
Yesterday we celebrated change, now we need to get back to work. 240,000 deaths in the US. 10 million cases.
The United States could soon report more than 200,000 coronavirus cases per day as infections continue to surge across the country, according to CNN.
The US reported 100,000 new cases 7 days in a row last week, and that total will likely continue to increase.
"We are watching cases increase substantially in this country — far beyond, I think, what most people ever thought could happen," Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, told CNN.
Osterholm and his team have created accurate forecasts for COVID-19 cases throughout the pandemic. He was named to President-elect Joe Biden's Transition COVID-19 Advisory Board on Monday.
"It will not surprise me if, in the next weeks, we see over 200,000 new cases a day," he said.
On Monday, the national 7-day average of new cases was nearly 120,000, which is triple the average from mid-September.
The number of hospitalizations in the United States are up as well, according to The COVID Tracking Project. On Monday, 59,275 people were in hospitals for COVID-19, marking the country's highest total since July and slightly lower than the April 15 peak of 59,940.
Deaths are on the rise, too, CNN reported. Last week, more than 1000 COVID-19 deaths were reported for 5 days in a row, which hasn't happened since August.
"We're going to see, by far, the darkest days of this pandemic between now and next spring when the vaccine becomes available," Osterholm told CBS This Morning on Tuesday.
"We have a perfect storm coming together," he said. "We have pandemic fatigue...we have pandemic anger...we just are not taking this virus seriously."
WebMD Health News © 2020
Cite this: Carolyn Crist. US Could Hit 200,000 Daily COVID-19 Cases Soon - Medscape - Nov 10, 2020.
This article should cause you to sit up and take notice. The number of cases are rising throughout the country again, including Maryland.
Current hospitalized cases in Maryland 761, in total we have had 156,709 cases. Our positivity rate is back up to 5.24% total death count 4084.
One of my biggest worries is that this is happening BEFORE Thanksgiving and the onset of the flu season. In a few weeks it could be way worse. Please do not allow “Covid fatigue” to let your guard down. It is not in your best interest and all it takes is being careless.
Maybe things will start to improve now but only if everyone plays their part. We haven’t even begun to turn the corner yet but maybe we can in January now that all the crazy rallies are over.
2 positive things: A new presidential task force (which includes people from my alma mater, yay!) and the imminent release of a vaccine.
Pfizer released their report yesterday that their new recombinant vaccine is 90% effective. Unfortunately there hasn’t been the usual time for ‘peer review’ because they said they would not have been able to keep it secret for the usual month it takes for that process. None-the-less the numbers still have to be examined and then cleared by the FDA. I worry that the media attention will pressurize the FDA to allow emergency clearance which will lead to distrust on the part of the public.
Anyway, as I have said many times, this is not when you need to be focusing on the vaccine. Focus on your life style choices which is something you have control over.
So “Happy Thanksgiving!” is in words only. I really don’t mean it literally.
If it makes you feel better, they plan on using the vaccine on us (medical workers) first. Whoopee!
Monday, November 2, 2020
Why you may want to rethink your flu shot this year and the Anxiety epidemic
The health community is on the look out for a “Twindemic” and reports are beginning to surface about patients who have tested positive for both the flu and Covid. There were reports last week as far apart as California and Tennessee. Obviously it is just a matter of time before Maryland reports as well, especially after Thanksgiving.
If we are lucky it will be a light flu season because the same measures that prevent Covid also prevent the flu. But if we are not it could be disastrous.
The most glaring difference between prevention of the two conditions is that there is a vaccine for the flu which is as specific as possible for this season’s flu.Sadly, we don't have one for Covid.
The commonest reason people tell me they won’t take the flu shot is because “I’ve never had the flu.” You’ve never had Covid either!
I would like to suggest that those who haven’t had their flu shot for this season yet, rethink that decision.
Symptoms of the flu can be like early symptoms of COVID-19, so people with these symptoms may require a COVID-19 test and then will have to stay home from work and isolate from the family until they get their results.
When you have influenza, which is a respiratory illness, in addition to COVID, which also impacts the respiratory tract, it only makes sense that you are going to have a serious respiratory component with shortness of breath and the potential for respiratory failure is very high.
Vaccination not only reduces the risk of catching the flu, it also reduces the chance that you will be hospitalized. In other words, the flu vaccine will provide some protection and reduce your chances of needing a ventilator if you do get sick with Covid.
A word to the wise, rethink the flu shot and get it as soon as possible.
There is another epidemic going on that is not much talked about and that is Anxiety. The whole nation is gripped by anxiety and many are embarrassed to admit it. Please if you feel it is affecting your quality of life, reach out and seek help. I am here to help you.
For those of you who like the outdoors remember to get out there now, winter is coming. There are still lots of places you can go and still have social distancing.
I was in Rehoboth today, the beach is amazingly clean and there was almost no one out there. https://youtu.be/gWNJP5e6Wkg
Get creative, there are so many outside places you can go before it gets too cold.
Saturday, October 24, 2020
No Covid -19 vaccine this year, the darkest days may still be ahead of us
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Thursday, September 17, 2020
COVID-19 Vaccine
OK listen up: there will NOT be a vaccine this year. I said this in the spring and many other times and I am reiterating it again now.
So why am I writing about it? Because people keep asking me about it. Please understand that discussions about vaccines are diversionary tactics and you need to keep your eye on the ball.
We have heard we would have a vaccine by the end of summer, now its October. We even have a military style term for producing the vaccine: "Operation Warped Speed". Come on people, does that really sound like a scientifically sound project or just a good media sound bite? I have to admit it’s a little catchy but catchy doesn’t cut it when you are dealing with people’s lives.
Having a master’s degree in public health (from Harvard) and having studied preventive medicine (at Johns Hopkins) I think I understand a little something about vaccine trials and how they work.
Here’s some information about what “some vaccines are now in phase three testing” really means and why we cannot bank on “herd immunity” anytime soon.
In the US we are long way from herd immunity, this is what happens when enough of a population has developed immunity that spread of a disease in a community becomes unlikely. Herd immunity can happen in two ways: through infection and through vaccination. The herd-immunity threshold is thought to be somewhere around 43% to 66% of the population for corona viruses.
Which would require that we further infect about six times more people than those who have already contracted COVID-19 in this country. If this happened tens of thousands more people would die and the health care system would be pushed to its limits and beyond.
So what’s the deal with a vaccine?.
Think of a vaccine as forcing a practice session on the immune system. Vaccines give the body a sneak peek at one or more key features of a virus before the actual virus invades. The immune system creates a “memory” of the virus and is better able to fight it off.
Operation Warped Speed is being funded by the American tax payer which is one of the reasons the vaccine trials are faster than is normal for a regular vaccine. Why? Well first of all the companies that develop vaccines have to evaluate all along the way whether it is cost effective to continue with the process since they don’t want to end up in the red with a vaccine that doesn’t work. In the case of Covid-19 they don’t have this restraint because the federal government is footing the bill. Nothing like money to make people move at warped speed !
There are multiple different kinds of vaccines that are being tested. For example, one might take a portion of the virus such as the spike (the projections from the virus that give it a crown look, hence the name corona) to see if it can generate a protective response without actually giving you the disease or make you sick in other ways. One may take the antibodies formed by someone who has had the disease and synthetically copy them many times over and see if that helps. One is to take the actual virus and divide it so many times that it becomes so weak it can still generate a response but not cause disease. And so on. They are all different and the race is on to figure out which ones work.
Clinical trials test drugs or medical devices on human beings. To get that far, a vaccine has already shown promise in the laboratory and in animal studies. Once a vaccine is ready for testing in human volunteers, the U.S Food and Drug Administration (FDA) requires success through three trial phases before approval for widespread use.
A phase 1 trial tests the vaccine’s safety with tens of patients. A phase 2 trial tests the vaccine’s safety as well as its effectiveness at different doses with hundreds of patients. A Phase 3 trial tests the vaccine’s safety and effectiveness with thousands of patients. The first vaccines being tested in the U.S. will include 30,000 participants each, and the trials will follow them for two years. One of the challenges is that there is a federal requirement that there should be all races included in the vaccine trials.
Most of the vaccine developers had hoped for at least 50% of black, indigenous and latinx participation in the trials to comply with the mandate to include minorities. So far none of the trials have managed to get more than 27% of minorities. According to the FDA, the least willing to participate are African Americans. So now the vaccine production companies have started recruiting at historically black colleges and universities (which are more trusted institutions for many Black Americans).
But everything from supplying syringes to managing storage facilities will add to the challenge of the greatest mass-inoculation campaign the world has ever seen.
These trials are randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials. That means that some of the participants get the vaccine and others get a placebo injection of salt water. Who gets the drug or the placebo is random and neither the participant nor the health care workers doing the injections will know who gets what. Even the researchers leading the trials will not know who got the vaccine or the saline injection. That’s why the trial is known as “double blind”.
More than half of those receiving early COVID-19 vaccines reported mild, short-term side effects such as fever, headaches, muscle aches, and injection-site reactions.
The first vaccines to be tested in the U.S. have required a booster about a month after the first injection. So the vaccine or vaccines will probably require a booster shot. But there should be a gradual buildup of immunity during the post-vaccination window.
After the phase 3 trials have been successful then the FDA has to approve the vaccine before it can be released to the general public and not everyone will get it at the same time.
The bottom line is that even at warped speed somethings can be speeded up, but nature cannot. For sure a vaccine cannot accommodate an election agenda no matter how many times we say it can.
Every coronavirus death is an avoidable tragedy which has been the case from the beginning of the pandemic. The way forward is to socially distance, clear the air, wash hands, and mask up until a vaccine opens up a controlled, safe road to herd immunity. In the meantime don’t hold your breath. There will NOT be a vaccine for you this year!
I am totally open to feedback. Be safe!
Thursday, August 27, 2020
Is convalescent plasma the next silver bullet for Covid-19
Is Convalescent Plasma the next silver bullet for Covid?
Last week I heard on the news that convalescent plasma (CP) had been approved in record time by the FDA as a treatment for Covid-19. This makes a little more sense than rushing through hydroquinone as an unresearched treatment for Covid with it's potential for deadly side effects.
Let me explain what this is exactly:
The use of convalescent plasma (CP) collected from previously infected individuals to passively transfer antibodies in order to protect or treat humans dates back almost 100 years. CP has been used for the treatment of different kinds of viral infectious diseases, especially in times of outbreaks for example polio and pandemics. Other examples of CP use include rabies, hepatitis B, measles, influenza, Ebola and hemorrhagic fevers.
CP for Covid treatment is thus made from the blood of people who have already had Covid. This requires Covid survivors to be willing to donate their blood.
If you think about it, the logistics and practicality of this would be no easy task assuming that convalescent plasma actually works. It has not been proven.
Why? First of all getting enough regular blood for all the people who need it is hard enough. There is always a shortage.
Although an estimated 38 percent of the U.S. population is eligible to donate blood at any given time, less than 10 percent do so annually. According to studies, the average donor is a college-educated white male, between the ages of 30 and 50, who is married and has an above-average income. This may not necessarily be the profile of the average Covid-19 survivor.
So now we would need to keep tabs on everyone who has had a Covid infection and convince them to donate their blood.
The donor and the patient must also have compatible blood types. Once plasma is donated, it is screened for other infectious diseases, such as HIV. Then hopefully made available in a timely fashion for the sick person.
The good thing about CP is that over the decades it has been proven to be relatively safe so long as the recipient does not have an allergic reaction (which is basically the same risk as having a blood transfusion). Another good thing is that it will be available a whole lot faster than a vaccine !
At the end of the day this is not a ‘new’ therapy as touted and the availability is currently quite scarce. Once again forget the wonder treatments. The only thing you can really hang your hat on is making sure you don’t get Covid in the first place. Yep, same ole same ole! Wash your hands, use hand sanitizer, wear your mask, stay inside, social distance. Take your vitamin D, zinc, vitamin C and you can add echinacea or elderberry if you like.
Stay well. Please let me know if you have questions.
Friday, July 24, 2020
The 7 Best Things about Covid-19
“When something bad happens, something good will follow”. That’s one of those old sayings that isn’t particularly useful like “good medicine has to taste bad”. We’ve had a lot of bad this year so I’m sure everyone is ready for some good to follow, so I decided to look for the silver lining. It is after all, a good strategy in life to always try to see some positives even in a bad situation.
So here goes:
1. I think the best thing about Covid-19 is that it is preventable.
We know what causes Covid-19 and we know how to prevent it. Having the will to do what is necessary is a personal decision however.
Imagine how bad things would be if one had no options.
Fortunately this isn’t the plague where you are just a sitting duck. It is not rocket science either. There was a spike in cases and hospitalizations after July 4th as expected. At this point, everyone knows what to do. We have no choice but to put life on hold until they do it.
2. The seniors got the memo! The death rate in the elderly is decreasing because they are being more careful. Maybe we should all take a leaf out of their book.
3. You never have to get the flu ever again! As a scientist I am thrilled to see that people finally understand how viruses are spread. Now people are careful about what they touch and are very generous with their use of hand sanitizer. This winter should be like no other. People are already asking me for the flu vaccine. No more chasing folks. I love hearing lay people using all the old epidemiological terms like ‘co-morbidities’, risk factors and infection rates. They sound like pros now.
4. People now understand why organizations like the CDC exist and why disbanding or defunding public health is a bad idea.
People also understand how the health in one country can affect people on the other side of the globe. Yes, the World Health Organization is an important component of a stable planet and the world economy.
5. The racial and socioeconomic disparities in health care are as obvious as a sore on your face. Not just that, people finally realize that we are all interconnected and that it is in everyone’s best interest for even poor people to be healthy.
Disease can spread from the bottom up, even when the rich people hide in the Hamptons they still need ‘essential’ (aka menial) workers.
Maybe universal healthcare for all isn’t such a bad idea after all! Imagine how much money we would have SAVED this year alone not to talk of lives and productivity.
We can no longer pretend healthcare is not political. We hear nothing from our current administration about their plans for providing healthcare to the underserved, only scare tactics about people losing their health insurance. Of course having health insurance requires you to be healthy enough to have a job!
6. Many people have enjoyed working from home. Less gas, less traffic, less pollution, less wear and tear on their bodies. Fewer outfits, less dry cleaning etc! I think that genie is out of the bottle. It behoves us to accommodate this new reality. (By the way have you tried digital medicine yet?)
7. I believe Covid-19 has been a wake up call for a lot of people.
Hopefully we are now more appreciative of what we had and what we are now missing.
These are just some of my thoughts.
Please, at least take the uptick in cases seriously or we could continue this pandemic until the end of the year. It is predicted that at the current rate of increase America will lose another 30,000 people in the next 2 months. A very sobering thought, positives not withstanding.
Sunday, July 12, 2020
The Phantom of the Mask, the Myths!
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Monday, June 29, 2020
"Give me Liberty or Give me Covid!"
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Thursday, June 25, 2020
Political Rallies, Beach Parties and other Nonsensical behavior
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