I want to highlight an article I read today in the Harvard Gazette about a new approach that has not been suggested before. This idea is from Michael Mina a Harvard epidemiologist and expert in disease testing. He is calling for a shift in strategy toward a cheap, daily, do-it-yourself test that he says can be as effective as a vaccine at interrupting coronavirus transmission. He believes it is currently the only viable option for a quick return to a normal life.
Dr. Mina, is an assistant professor of epidemiology at my alma mater the Harvard T.S.Chan School of Public Health. He suggests that this would be a better strategy than closing down the economy and keeping schools closed which is really the only other viable option.
These paper-strip tests (similar to the popular pregnancy tests) have already been developed and their shotgun approach to testing cheap and widespread provides a way back to the workplace, classroom, and other venues.
The strategy, “could put hundreds of millions of tests in the hands of consumers within weeks, at a cost far less than repeated rounds of economic stimulus” Mina said. Several companies have produced these tests which can be produced for less than a dollar. With tests like these, ordinary people can perform their own tests each day or every other day. They are not as accurate as the current diagnostic tests but they are effective at detecting virus when a person is most infectious. If everyone who tests positive stays home, the thought is that the widespread effect would be similar to that of a vaccine because people would stop the transmission chains across the country. If people are concerned about false positives they could then follow up with a formal test with their doctor and stay quarantined meanwhile.
So whats the catch ?
First of all unless the tests are FDA approved and federal government sanctioned, companies are not going to invest and produce these tests in the numbers that would be required to be effective.
The currently available tests take time and are expensive. Which makes them impractical for daily in- home testing. These tests may not be perfect but the nation’s current testing strategy catches less than 3 percent of cases early enough for a person to proactively prevent transmitting the virus. Now if those testing positive stay home, “a cheap, at-home testing regimen has the potential to provide a kind of artificial herd immunity, interrupting enough transmission nationwide to cause the pandemic to stall”
Another catch is one that relates to all fields of prevention: it still requires people to take some level of responsibility and motivation to actually do the test and then follow through if the results are positive.
According to Dr. Mina what’s needed, is the federal government’s financial and organizational clout to both provide resources and get companies working together. Though even a $1 per day test gets expensive, if the federal government provides them free to all Americans, the cost would be far less than recent stimulus efforts. We could get these tests up and running right now unlike the vaccines.
“It will stop the vast majority of transmission and it will cause these outbreaks to disappear in a matter of weeks,” Mina said. “This is something we can actually do at warp speed.”
If you would like to read the full article you can read it here:
Its not over yet! The 'state' of the state.
There have been 3600 deaths in Maryland so far with huge differences between the counties. For example: deaths in Howard county 106, PG county 741 and Montgomery county 767.
Presently there are 488 people hospitalized in the state, 117 in ICU.
We were doing so well until the July 4th holiday when people became very lax.
I know you are tired of the restrictions but please don’t quit while we are ahead!
We now have to look forward and figure out how to keep our children safe as people press for a return to the classroom.
Even though things are ‘opening up’ please be cautious and don’t go overboard. Just because you can sit inside in restaurants now doesn’t mean you need to.
Your nails can wait another two weeks, two months if they have to!
Great idea! Finally some sanity and pragmatic thinking to address this crisis.
ReplyDeleteThank you Dr. Tuakli.
ReplyDeleteBev Hosley